000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SUN MAY 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N93W TO 
10N109W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N113W TO 06N123W. 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 06N123W TO 07N136W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W...AND FROM 
03N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING TO AND 
END ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENTS ON RECORD. 

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N142W WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N111W.  THE RESULTING SMALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS. THIS SHOULD 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A 1008 MB LOW AT 08N113W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED 
CONVECTION AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...THUS THE 
OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO FURTHER DEVELOP ARE LIMITED.

AN 0506 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW ON THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 07N120W.  WITH SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY 
STABLE AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...NO TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS IS LIKELY.

A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL EVENT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 8 FT 
SEAS FROM 02S TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 118W. THIS WILL GRADUALLY 
FADE BY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND GRIDS ARE A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST. THE GFS HAS INDICATED A TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 
LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A NEW DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWED 
NO SUCH GENESIS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN EDITED TO SHOW NO 
DEVELOPMENT. 

$$ 
FORMOSA