000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT IS LIKELY WEAKENING AND IS 
ESTIMATED THAT THE CURRENT PEAK WINDS ARE AROUND 35 KT AND 
HIGHEST SEAS ARE LIKELY AROUND 12 FT. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE 
FORCE GALE IS ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON 
RECORD. THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON.

.POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N105W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 103W-107W. THE 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW AND THE WATERS WARM...SO THE 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 5N80W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 8N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 8N97W TO A 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 9N105W TO 5N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
FROM 5N120W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 8N131W TO 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 88W 
AND 107W AND FROM 3N-7W BETWEEN 110W-115W AND FROM 5N-12N 
BETWEEN 128W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 20N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 110W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N115W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 128W-135W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE RESULTING 
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS. 
THIS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS INCREASED TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
ALLOWING A PUSH OF ELY 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TODAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
THIS EVENING.
 
$$
DGS