000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY WEAKENING 
...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CURRENT PEAK WINDS ARE AROUND 35 KT 
AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE LIKELY AROUND 14 FT. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GALES ON RECORD. THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY LATER THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO FURTHER TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS EVENTS ARE 
LIKELY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N105W AT THE WESTERN END OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W.     
A 0340 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A CENTER W OF 103W 
AND 25 KT EASTERLIES WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW AND THE WATERS WARM...SO THE 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A 
HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N85W TO 06N96W TO A 
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N105W TO 04N118W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 08N130W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 139W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A MODERATE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N131W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 18N110W. THE RESULTING SMALL PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS. THIS SHOULD 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS INCREASED TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
ALLOWING A PUSH OF STRONG BREEZE GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING. THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH 
BY SAT EVENING.

A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL EVENT OF 8 FT IS NEAR CURRENTLY NEAR THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 107W AND 120W. THE COMBINATION OF THE SW SWELL 
AND THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 
10 FT SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
FORMOSA