000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC SAT MAY 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY WEAKENING 
...AFTER PEAKING 45-50 KT EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... 
SHIP A8OH4 REPORTED 15 FOOT SEAS IN N 40 KT WIND AT 21Z IN THE 
GULF. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CURRENT PEAK WINDS ARE AROUND 40 
KT FROM 60-90 NM OFFSHORE OF SALINA CRUZ. HIGHEST SEAS ARE 
LIKELY AROUND 15 FT...AS REPORTED BY THE SHIP. THIS LATE-SEASON 
GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY LATER THIS MORNING AND DROP BELOW STRONG BREEZE 
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO FURTHER TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS 
EVENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N102W AT THE WESTERN END OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE LOW.  AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1638Z 
SHOWED 25 KT EASTERLIES ABOUT 90 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER...THOUGH 
THESE MAY HAVE BEEN AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY 
LOW AND THE WATERS WARM...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT.  THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 
NEAR 09N102W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 
09N102W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N124W.  THE ITCZ RESUMES 
FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 85W 
AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH FROM 90W TO 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS WELL AS WEST OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A MODERATE 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N113W.  THE RESULTING SMALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS.  THIS SHOULD 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS INCREASED TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
ALLOWING A PUSH OF STRONG BREEZE GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING.  THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL 
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL EVENT OF 8 FT IS NEAR CURRENTLY NEAR THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 107W AND 125W. THE COMBINATION OF THE SW SWELL 
AND THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 
10 FT SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
LANDSEA