000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC FRI MAY 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY BEGINNING TO 
WEAKEN...AFTER PEAKING 45-50 KT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS 
MORNING. SHIP A8OH4 REPORTED 14 FOOT SEAS IN NW 30 KT WIND AT 
18Z IN THE GULF. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CURRENT PEAK WINDS ARE 
AROUND 40 KT FROM 60-90 NM OFFSHORE OF SALINA CRUZ. HIGHEST SEAS 
ARE LIKELY AROUND 16 FT. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND 
EVENT IS ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. 
THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY 
MORNING AND DROP BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. NO FURTHER TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS EVENTS ARE LIKELY IN 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 
NEAR 09N107W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 
09N107W TO 06N110W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N122W TO 
ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 09N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH 
EAST OF 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 128W AS WELL 
AS WEST OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 02N 
TO 05N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A MODERATE 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N113W.  THE RESULTING SMALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS.  THIS SHOULD 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
HAS INCREASED TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING 
A PUSH OF STRONG BREEZE GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THIS AFTERNOON.  A 1552Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THE NE 
25 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA COAST. THIS 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL EVENT OF 8 FT IS NEAR CURRENTLY NEAR THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 108W AND 125W. THE COMBINATION OF THE SW SWELL 
AND THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 
9 FT SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
LANDSEA