000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC THU MAY 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
CONTINUES. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 30 TO 45 KT AND SEAS TO 19 FT.  
THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD TO S OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 
111W SAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE SAT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 9N100W. 
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 9N100W TO 6N110W TO A 
1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 9N120W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 280 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W-85W AND FROM 
5N-13N BETWEEN 95W-106W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 122W-125W AND 
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 133W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N121W TO 20N129W. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS NW OF A 
LINE FROM 10N140W TO 25N110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NW MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N122W. A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N116W 
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 280 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 85W

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN 
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. THE MODELS SUGGESTS GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESENTLY AT 09N101W...MOVING IT 
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT AND DEEPENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
...GENERATING STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THOUGH 
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN.
 
$$ 
DGS