000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC THU MAY 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
CONTINUES. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY TO 45 KT AND SEAS TO 20 FT.  THE 
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD TO S OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 112W 
SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE TO PERSIST UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 10N94W TO A 1010 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 06N110W TO 09N119W TO A 1011 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N120W TO 07N128W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W...FROM 05N TO 
10N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 
125W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 125WALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N118W AND 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION. FURTHER E...A RIDGE IS E 
OF 100W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 

ON THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A 1026 
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N133W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS 
JUST W OF THE NW CORNER. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS 
THE REGION WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 
TO 15 KT. THE GFS SUGGESTS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE 
LOW PRESENTLY AT 09N101W...MOVING IT WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT AND 
DEEPENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BY EARLY FRIDAY...GENERATING STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THOUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT DURING 
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PULSE AND 
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY INTO 
EARLY SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
FORMOSA