000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160252
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC THU MAY 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
CONTINUES THIS EVENING. INVESTIGATING MODEL DATA...THE GFS AND 
ECMWF BOTH PEAK AT 45 KT WITH THE NAM INDICATING A VERY SHORT 
WINDOW POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY OF A VERY 
SMALL POCKET AREA OF 50 KT...STORM FORCE...WINDS IN THE CORE OF 
THE WIND SURGE. GIVEN CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND 
BLENDING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS INTO THE GFE GRIDS...WILL 
REMAIN WITH MAX WINDS OF 45 KT AND MAXIMUM SEAS OF 20 FT. THE 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY 
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 10N94W A 1010 MB 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N99W TO 05N108W TO 09N119W TO A 1011 MB LOW 
PRESSURE NEAR 09N120W TO 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W...FROM 04N TO 
11N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
35N131W. THE NEAREST FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ON THE CUSP OF THE 
NW CORNER AS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 33N138W TO 
30N141W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. 
         
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N117W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY S OF 12N W OF 115W ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. A 
WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG 09N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FARTHER 
EAST...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH TWO SPECIFIC AREAS OF 
ENERGY...ONE MOVING ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS E OF 84W...AND THE OTHER 
LOCATED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA NEAR 09N99W IN THE 
VICINITY OF A 1010 MB LOW. THE GFS SUGGESTS GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING WESTWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY 
NEAR 09N107W...HOWEVER OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND 
UKMET INDICATE A LOW BUT DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 
GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ELEVATED SEAS AT THIS POINT DUE TO 
THE EXPANSION OF THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND IMPACTING SW 
SWELL...HOWEVER WILL KEEP RESULTANT WIND FIELD CAPPED AT 20 KT 
OR LESS FOR NOW.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BY EARLY FRIDAY...GENERATING STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THOUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT DURING 
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PULSE AND 
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY INTO 
EARLY SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
HUFFMAN