000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
CONTINUES. INVESTIGATING MODEL DATA...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH 
APPEAR TO PEAK AT 45 KT WITH THE NAM INDICATING A VERY SHORT 
WINDOW POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY OF A VERY 
SMALL POCKET AREA OF 50 KT...STORM FORCE...WINDS IN THE CORE OF 
THE WIND SURGE. GIVEN CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND 
BLENDING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS INTO THE GFE GRIDS...WILL 
REMAIN WITH MAX WINDS OF 45 KT AND MAXIMUM SEAS OF 20 FT. THE 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY 
MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N82W TO 10N93W TO 
07N102W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
07N102W TO 06N106W TO 09N118W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 
08N126W TO 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
02N TO 10N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 
124W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 35N130W. THE NEAREST FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ON 
THE CUSP OF ENTERING THE NW CORNER AS A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED 
FROM 33N136W TO 30N140W CONTINUING SW AS A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N144W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. 
         
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N118W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY S OF 10N W OF 116W ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. A 
WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG 08N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FARTHER 
EAST...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH TWO SPECIFIC AREAS OF 
ENERGY...ONE MOVING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA E OF 87W...AND 
THE OTHER LOCATED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA NEAR 
10N99W. THE GFS SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY ROBUST SURFACE LOW 
DEVELOPING AND MOVING WESTWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY 
NEAR 08N105W...HOWEVER OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND 
UKMET INDICATE A LOW BUT DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 
GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ELEVATED SEAS AT THIS POINT DUE TO 
THE EXPANSION OF THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND IMPACTING SW 
SWELL...HOWEVER WILL KEEP RESULTANT WIND FIELD 20 KT OR LESS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BY EARLY FRIDAY...GENERATING STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THOUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT DURING 
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PULSE AND 
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY INTO 
EARLY SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
HUFFMAN