000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS 
UNDERWAY. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS ONE OF THE 
LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. IT WILL ALSO BE A 
STRONG GALE EVENT WITH WINDS PEAKING NEAR 45 KT AND SEAS 
BUILDING AS HIGH AS 20 FT WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE COAST OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY 
AND DROP BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W TO 9N95W TO 6N102W. ITCZ FROM 6N102W 
TO 1012 MB LOW AT 7N125W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N E OF 85W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 91W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 22N126W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 31N119W TO 23N125W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS NW OF A LINE 16N140W TO 26N110W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N115W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 114W-120W.

A RATHER WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N131W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W. THE 
RESULTING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE TRADEWINDS 
OF ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH BREEZE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BY LATE TODAY...ALLOWING A PUSH OF STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH 
BELOW 25 KT DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY...WINDS WILL 
PULSE AND STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH BY 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 
$$ 
DGS