000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NO RECENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN 
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER...SALINA CRUX ALONG THE MEXICAN PACIFIC 
COAST REPORTED NORTH 25 KT AT 00Z.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE 
CURRENT PEAK WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KT FROM 30-90 NM OFFSHORE OF 
SALINA CRUZ. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE 
ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. IT WILL 
ALSO BE A STRONG GALE EVENT WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR 45 KT LATE 
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 19 
FT WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS NOT OUT 
OF THE QUESTION THAT THE EVENT COULD REACH STORM FORCE WITH THE 
18Z GFS...12Z UKMET...AND 12Z NAVGEM ALL INDICATING A PEAK OF 45 
KT...THOUGH THE 18Z GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES DO NOT SUGGEST 
ANY CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS.  THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO 
IMMEDIATELY BE ABOUT 10 KT TOO LOW WITH THIS EVENT AND ITS 35 KT 
PEAK HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED. THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP BELOW STRONG BREEZE 
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 09N78W TO 1009 MB 
LOW AT 08N96W TO 08N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N111W TO 1009 MB 
LOW AT 07N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH E OF 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 115W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A RATHER WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA 
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 25N115W.  THE RESULTING 
SMALL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS.  
THIS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS 
ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG BREEZE FLOW SHOULD 
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BY LATE TODAY...ALLOWING A PUSH OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRIDAY MORNING.  THE DIURNAL PULSING OF THIS 
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS AND SEAS TO BE HIGHEST IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL DIMINISH BY 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A MODEST LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL EVENT OF 6 TO 8 FT IS NEAR 05N AT 
100W. ON SATURDAY...A NEW AND SLIGHTLY MORE ENERGETIC SW SWELL 
WILL REACH THE EQUATOR. THE COMBINATION OF THE SW SWELL AND THE 
TEHUANTEPEC WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT 
SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
LANDSEA