000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
AFTERNOON. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATE GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
ADDITIONALLY...THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A RATHER UNIQUE 
STRUCTURE OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN A RING ABOUT 20 
NM THICK EXTENDING FROM 14.5N97.3W TO 13N96.5W TO 13N95W. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAS A TRANSIENT 
GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FEATURE PROPAGATING OUT AHEAD OF THE 
MAIN GAP WIND EVENT STRONGEST WINDS. HOWEVER...THE FEATURE 
LIKELY HAS DISSIPATED BY THIS TIME. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE 
GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GALES ON RECORD. THIS WILL ALSO BE A STRONG GALE EVENT WITH 
WINDS REACHING NEAR 45 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 19 FT WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE 
COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE 
EVENT COULD REACH STORM FORCE WITH THE 12Z GFS...UKMET...AND 
NAVGEM ALL INDICATING A PEAK OF 45 KT...THOUGH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE 
PROBABILITIES DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS. 
THE GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND DROP BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 09N78W TO 1009 MB 
LOW AT 08N96W TO 1011 MB LOW AT 09N116W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
00N116W TO 1010 MB LOW AT 08N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 03N W OF 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A RATHER WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 32N130W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N114W.  THE RESULTING SMALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADEWINDS OF ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WINDS.  THIS SHOULD 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL 
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING 
THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BY LATE TOMORROW...ALLOWING A PUSH OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRIDAY MORNING.  THE DIURNAL PULSING OF 
THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS AND SEAS TO BE HIGHEST IN LATE 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT WILL 
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$ 
LANDSEA