000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141728 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC WED MAY 14 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF PAPAGAYO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR 
SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 
BY THIS EVENING. THIS LATE-SEASON GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL 
BE ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. THIS 
WILL BE A STRONG GALE EVENT WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR 45 KT LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE SATURDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N80W TO 10N90W TO 
08N115W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W THROUGH 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A BLOCKING MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD 
THROUGH 125W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL 
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE FLOW 
FARTHER SOUTH. 

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER 10N115W EXTENDING EASTWARD 
TO A SMALLER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE 
TROUGH N OF 13N ALONG 95W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SOME OF THIS 
ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT AND 
INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. 

SIMILARLY FORCING ALOFT SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA AND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING LINGERING OVERNIGHT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL 
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THEN DIMINISH 
INTO THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BY 
LATE TOMORROW...ALLOWING A PUSH OF STRONG GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRIDAY MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN