000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC WED MAY 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE INTO THE FAR SW 
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONE OF THE 
LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. WINDS WILL REACH 40 
KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND MAY EVEN REACH 45 KT LATE 
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE AROUND SATURDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO 10N110W TO 
06125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N125W THROUGH 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 
91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 28N ALONG 123W...INHIBITING THE 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 150W AND 
ALLOWING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL JUST WEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 
15N AND WEST OF 115W. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ 
WEST OF 135W EXTENDING WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 150W. THIS 
IS AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA ALONG 
145W.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED 
SOUTHEAST OVER COSTA RICA...AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH 
THAT IS DIGGING THROUGH MEXICO. WHILE THIS IS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...FORCING RELATED TO A 
SMALL SCALE UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N89W. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE 
TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PANAMA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO 
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE PULSES OF CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 95W...PARTICULARLY CONVECTION OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES 
WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER 
BASIN TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 
AROUND 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONG FLOW WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH INTO THU.

$$
CHRISTENSEN