000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
MOVE INTO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED. WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. 
WINDS WILL REACH 40 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND MAY 
EVEN REACH 45 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SATURDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N95W TO 10N105W. THE 
ITCZ REACHES FROM 10N105W THROUGH 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF ITCZ W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 28N ALONG 123W...INHIBITING THE 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 150W AND 
ALLOWING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL JUST WEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 
15N AND WEST OF 115W. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ 
WEST OF 135W EXTENDING WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 150W. THIS 
IS AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA ALONG 
145W.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED 
SOUTHEAST OVER COSTA RICA...AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH 
THAT IS DIGGING THROUGH MEXICO. WHILE THIS IS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...FORCING RELATED TO A 
SMALL SCALE UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N89W. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE 
TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PANAMA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO 
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE PULSES OF CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 95W...PARTICULARLY CONVECTION OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED 
ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
CONTINUES TO BUILD...BUT IS NOT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WHICH IS THE FAVORED AREA TO PROMOTE STRONG FLOW IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRES IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE...OVER WYOMING. 
NONETHELESS...IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AND STILL PRESENT AN 
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER 
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN