000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
MOVE INTO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED. WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. 
WINDS WILL REACH 40 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND MAY 
EVEN REACH 45 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SATURDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 09N95W TO 
09N108W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N108W TO 05N135W THROUGH 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 28N ALONG 125W...INHIBITING THE 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 150W AND 
ALLOWING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL JUST WEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 
15N AND WEST OF 115W. SOUTHERN STREAM JET DYNAMICS ARE 
MAINTAINING WEAK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...BUT OVERALL CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY 
WEAK LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. 

FARTHER EAST A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF 10N ALONG 91W. A FEW 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS FEATURE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 
ONLY MODERATE TO NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
CONTINUES TO BUILD...BUT IS NOT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WHICH IS THE FAVORED AREA TO PROMOTE STRONG FLOW IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRES IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE...OVER WYOMING. 
NONETHELESS...IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AND STILL PRESENT AN 
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER 
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN