000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130222
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 
10N86W TO 06N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N130W THROUGH 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 22N117W IS 
CAUSING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHEASTERLY 
TRADEWINDS FARTHER SOUTH. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK 
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS AND WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 8 FT.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS 
THE ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS IS ALLOWING STRONG BREEZE 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY. SEAS 
WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 FT IN THIS AREA. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF 
THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 
WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-
SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING 
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE 18Z GFS...12Z UKMET...AND 12Z NAVGEM 
PEAK THE EVENT AT 45 KT AT THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE 12Z ECMWF 
ONLY REACHES 35 KT.  THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 KT PEAK IN 
THE GRIDS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE BOOSTED UPWARD.  REGARDLESS 
OF THE EXACT PEAK...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF 
THE LATEST IN THE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD. 
THE EVENT SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SATURDAY MORNING.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE 
AREA.  BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BRIEF LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY 
SWELL WILL REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WITH 8-9 FT SWELL.  
THIS...HOWEVER...SHOULD FADE BY SUNDAY.

THE WIND GRIDS ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 12Z 
ECMWF BOOSTED A COUPLE KNOTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE GAP WIND 
EVENT.  THE WAVE GRIDS ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 
THE 12Z MULTI-GRID WAVE WATCH MODEL FROM THE GFS.

$$
LANDSEA