000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 
10N85W TO 05N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N131W THROUGH 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 
107W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 22N110W IS 
ALLOWING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWIND 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FARTHER SOUTH. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS THE TRADES SHOULD 
REMAIN BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS AND WAVEHEIGHTS BELOW 8 FT.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS 
THE ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG BREEZE 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY. SEAS 
WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT IN THIS AREA. 

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE 
12Z GFS...UKMET...AND NAVGEM PEAK THE EVENT AT 45 KT AT THURSDAY 
EVENING...WHILE ECMWF ONLY REACHES 35 KT.  THE FORECAST 
CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 KT PEAK IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO 
BE BOOSTED UPWARD.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PEAK...IT DOES 
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE LATEST IN THE SEASON 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE 
AREA.  BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A BRIEF LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY 
SWELL WILL REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WITH 8-9 FT SWELL.  
THIS...HOWEVER...SHOULD FADE BY SUNDAY.

THE WIND GRIDS ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 12Z 
ECMWF BOOSTED A COUPLE KNOTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE GAP WIND 
EVENT.  THE WAVE GRIDS ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 
THE 12Z MULTI-GRID WAVE WATCH MODEL FROM THE GFS.

$$ LANDSEA