000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N85W TO 1008 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N95W TO 05N135W...WHERE WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING FARTHER WEST THROUGH 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 130W 
N OF 25N AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC 
NORTH OF HAWAII. FRESH NW TO N FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN THE HIGH 
PRES AND THE COASTLINE. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF THE CENTRAL 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0530 
UTC INDICATED 20 KT FLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N EAST OF 125W. 
A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS 
AREA AS WELL...DUE TO N SWELL. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAKENING RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.

THE WEAKENED RIDGE IS ALSO ALLOWING GENERALLY MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH. A PAIR OF 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED 
PERSISTENT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FT FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 130W...JUST 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ WHERE TRADE WINDS ARE REACHING 20 KT. MWW3 AND 
ECWAVE GUIDANCE SHOW THIS AREA OF 8 FT SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH 
TONIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLIPPED INTO THE 
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY DISSIPATED LATE IN THE 
EVENING. STRONG FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT MAY 
HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE. THIS IS A TEMPORARY LULL AS HIGH PRES 
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA BEHIND A 
STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS WILL 
ALLOW STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT 
IN THIS AREA. 

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA IS STARTING TO 
WEAKEN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER WEST NEAR 10N120W. 
A MUCH ANTICIPATED LOW PRES AREA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 10N95W. 
HOWEVER VERY LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM OR ELSEWHERE EAST OF 110W...JUST SOME NEAR COASTAL 
CONVERGENT ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OFF EL 
SALVADOR. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY EXTENSIVE CONVECTION 
IN THIS AREA...AND IS INDICATIVE OF MINIMAL SUPPORT DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FARTHER WEST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 
10N120W. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING LATE WED.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN