000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N94W 
TO 10N95W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N108W TO 08N113W TO 05N130W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 
NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N130W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS 
WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE 
TRADES OVER THIS AREA BY TUE. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NE WATERS HAS LOOSENED AND WINDS 
OVER THIS AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE AS INDICATED BY 
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. SEAS HAVE ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDED. 
CURRENTLY SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ARE COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. 
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT 
THIS EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS HELPING FOR STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. 
THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT IN 
THIS AREA. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING LATE WED.

$$ 
AL