000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

NO MONSOON TROUGH. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N105W TO 06N125W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 25N125W TO 23N135W. MODERATE 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED UP TO 10 TO 12 DEGREES S 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY 
ANTICYCLONIC IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL 
BECOME SOUTHERLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER A VAST AREA N OF ABOUT 
17N. AT THE SURFACE A 1027 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED NEAR 35N131W 
WITH RIDGING NOTED N OF 15N W OF ABOUT 115W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT 
COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY E OF 105W WITH DIFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTING 
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS N OF 04N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO 
BETWEEN 83W AND 98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 95W FROM 
09N TO 13N. GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 18Z RUN REMAIN IN AGREEMENT 
THAT AT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE 
VICINITY OF 09N96W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT 
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING 
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT 
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

$$ 
CAB