000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N85W TO 09N98W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N108W TO 07N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N83W TO 07N90W...WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N118W TO 08N126W...AND FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 129W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED THROUGH 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 26N125W TO 23N132W. MODERATE 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED UP TO 10 DEGREES S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC IN 
THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER A VAST AREA N OF ABOUT 17N. AT THE 
SURFACE A STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED NEAR 35N131W 
WITH RIDGING NOTED N OF 15N W OF ABOUT 112W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT 
COVERS THE AREA ROUGHLY E OF 105W WITH DIFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTING 
A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS N OF 03N INTO CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 83W AND 98W. GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 
12Z RUN REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT AT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM 
EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE VICINITY OF 09N92W.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT 
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING 
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT 
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

$$ 
CAB