000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A VERY WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS EXTENDING 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 08N78W TO 
10N85W...THEN AS FAR WEST AS 10N95W. NO CLEAR MONSOON TROUGH OR 
ITCZ EXISTS BETWEEN 95W AND NEAR 108W WHERE THE ITCZ STARTS. 
CONFLUENCE OF NE AND SE FLOW DEFINES THE ITCZ FROM 07N108W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. 
AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
120W...125W AND 130W...AND WEST OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT 
SATELLITE DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE WATERS NORTH 
OF 27N AND EAST OF 125W. THE STRONG FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE 
OF 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 35N135W. FRESH SWELL 
GENERATED BY STRONGER FLOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER NORTH OF 25N 
AND EAST OF 125W...WITH COMBINED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH 
AS 13 FT. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER 
BASIN THIS MORNING...AND WILL PENETRATE THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF 
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT IN 
THIS AREA. 

FARTHER WEST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE ITCZ TO AROUND 12N WEST OF 120W. 
AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED SEAS TO 
8 FT NEAR 08N132W...VERIFYING WAVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. TRADE 
WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
GUATEMALA. A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS 
ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING LIFT TO THE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N95W. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT EAST OF 100W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST WEAK LOW PRES WILL FORM THROUGH 
EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THIS VICINITY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING LATE WED.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN