000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT. THE FIRST PORTION EXTENDS FROM 
10N85W TO 12N94W. THE SECOND PORTION EXTENDS FROM 17N102W TO 
07N110W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 
60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N AND 60 NM S 
OF ITCZ W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N133W 
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N117W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE 
TRADEWINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 994 
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS 
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT IS ALSO 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SEAS GENERATED 
FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
FAR NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA PEAKING NEAR 13 FT THIS MORNING 
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING LATE WED.

$$ 
AL