000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101525 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAY 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N97W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 08N85W TO 12N90W. ...DISCUSSION... RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N134W TO NEAR 14N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH WINDS IN FORECAST AREA W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REACHING 20 TO 25 KT. THE GALES WILL GENERATE A NW SWELL WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS PEAKING AT 13-14 FT SUN MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AND AN EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE PREDICTED BY GFS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT REACHING GALE FORCE WED AND/OR THU...THE MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR. THOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEVELOPING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. $$ MUNDELL