000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SAT MAY 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE FIRST PORTION 
EXTENDING FROM 09N83W TO 10N91W. THE SECOND PORTION EXTENDS FROM 
16N101W TO 06N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 32N135W WITH RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE MODERATE 
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ONLY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 1005 
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE 
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR NE PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY N OF 28N AND E OF 125W TO THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THIS MORNING. SEAS GENERATED 
FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
FAR NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA PEAKING NEAR 13 FT BY SUN 
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. 

LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH A LATE-SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AND AN EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE 
PREDICTED BY THE GFS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE ALL GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT POTENTIALLY 
REACHING GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...THE MODELS 
ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR. THOUGH 
THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES...BOTH THE GFS AND 
UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS 
DEVELOPING A MUCH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
$$ 
AL