000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W NEAR THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA TO 09N99W TO 08N121W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N121W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS FROM 03N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 32N135W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 27N112W. THE MODERATE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 
GENERALLY BELOW 8 FT.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A SURGE OF STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS WILL REACH 32N 
JUST WEST OF BAJA STARTING LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO 14 
FT AND WILL GRADUALLY FADE BY LATE MONDAY.

A SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS CAUSING 8 FT 
SWELL UP TO ABOUT 05N CURRENTLY EAST OF 95W. THESE SWELL WILL 
DIMINISH TO BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW SOUTHWESTERLY 
SWELL EVENT WILL BRIEFLY REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AT 03S EARLY 
SUNDAY BEFORE FADING BY MONDAY.

IN THE LONGER TERM...BOTH A SIGNIFICANT LATE-SEASON TEHUANTEPEC 
GAP WIND EVENT AND A SIGNIFICANT EARLY-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ARE PREDICTED BY THE GFS.  WHILE ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
CONSISTENT WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT REACHING GALE FORCE ON 
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT ON WHETHER 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 
ALMOST NOTHING ON THOSE DATES.  THE WIND AND WAVE GRIDS REFLECT 
A CONSENSUS OF A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT...BUT ONLY A MODEST 
LOW SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
 
GRIDDED FORECAST DATA FOR OUR AREA ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST ALONG WITH WINDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SEAS FROM 
THE MWW3...DAMPED DOWN AT THE LONG-RANGE TO REFLECT A WEAKER 
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN SHOWN IN THE GFS.

$$ 
LANDSEA