000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT. THE FIRST PART EXTENDS FROM 
10N86W TO 12N90W. THE SECOND PART EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 16N102W TO 07N107W TO 08N120W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST 
A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N136W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. 

LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N102W. THIS LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER HAS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
WEAKENING AND WINDS REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS. THERE ARE STILL 
LINGERING 8 FT SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. 
THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS CONTINUING TO DECREASE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY 
TONIGHT. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N136W WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL 
DEEPEN OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. WINDS N OF 
THE FORECAST AREA OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL REACH GALE 
FORCE WHILE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THE GALE 
FORCE WINDS WILL GENERATE A NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE 
INTO THE NE WATERS. BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 
FT RANGE WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY 
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT COVERING THE WATERS S OF 02S BETWEEN 98W AND 
108W.

$$ 
AL