000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W...THEN CONTINUES 
FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W TO 07N106W TO 08N120W. ITCZ 
BEGINS NEAR 08N120W THROUGH 06N130W 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N102W ALONG THE 
NORTHERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION HAS 
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. ANOTHER AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE 
TROUGH WAS INDICATED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W.  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW HAVE DROPPED 
BELOW 20 KT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 9 FT N 
OF 06N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. THE LOW SHOULD MEANDER OR DRIFT TO 
THE SE JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE 
PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN AND 
GUERRERO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 30N138W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N113W. THE MODERATE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

THE NORTHWESTERLY SHORT PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT HAS DISSIPATED OFF 
THE NORTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THIS IS TEMPORARY AS 
A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL 
REACH 32N JUST WEST OF BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING 
SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
IS RESULTING IN 8 TO 9 SEAS UP TO ABOUT 05N...EXCEPT WITHIN 240 
NM IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS WILL 
DIMINISH TO BELOW 8 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A NEW SOUTHERLY SWELL 
EVENT WILL BRIEFLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG 03S EARLY 
SUNDAY BEFORE FADING BY MONDAY.
 
GRIDDED FORECAST DATA FOR OUR AREA ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST ALONG WITH WINDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SEAS FROM 
THE MWW3.

$$ 
COBB