000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082128 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAY 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A WEAKENING 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N103W ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A 1602 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE CENTER WAS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED LOCATION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TROUGH WAS INDICATED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ACAPULCO...BUT IS NOW BUILDING TO THE SE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 11 FT. THE LOW SHOULD MEANDER OR DRIFT TO THE SE JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE CAUSED THIS DISTURBANCE TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N93W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N103W TO 06N106W TO 07N120W. ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N120W THROUGH 06N130W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 30N138W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N113W. THE MODERATE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHORT PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT HAS DISSIPATED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THIS IS TEMPORARY AS A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH 32N JUST WEST OF BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS RESULTING IN 8 TO 9 SEAS UP TO ABOUT 05N...EXCEPT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 8 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SAT. A NEW SOUTHERLY SWELL EVENT WILL BRIEFLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG 03S EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE FADING BY MONDAY. GRIDDED FORECAST DATA FOR OUR AREA ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH WINDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SEAS FROM THE MWW3. $$ COBB