000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N103W ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED 
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 16N BETWEEN 
100W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FROM THE COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W 
INCLUDING THE STATES OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. THE COMBINATION 
OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELL EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS 
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 11 FT. THE LOW 
SHOULD MEANDER JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO 
BEFORE DISSIPATING. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE CAUSED THIS 
DISTURBANCE TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND 
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.  
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF 
MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES 06N79W TO 
10N87W TO 06N99W...THEN RESUMES AT 12N109W TO 05N133W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
TROUGH E OF 85W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 31N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N110W. THE MODERATE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

A NORTHWESTERLY SHORT PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT IS OCCURRING JUST 
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER 
TODAY. A SURGE OF STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS WILL REACH 
32N JUST WEST OF BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
AND WILL GRADUALLY FADE BY TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
IS CAUSING 8 TO 9 SWELL UP TO ABOUT 05N CURRENTLY. THESE SWELL 
WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 8 FT BY LATE FRIDAY. A NEW SOUTHERLY 
SWELL EVENT WILL BRIEFLY REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AT 03S EARLY 
SUNDAY BEFORE FADING BY MONDAY.
 
GRIDDED FORECAST DATA FOR OUR AREA ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST ALONG WITH WINDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SEAS FROM 
THE MWW3.

$$ 
LANDSEA