000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N105W WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING 
EXTENDING NE/SW OF THE LOW. CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED BUT 
SHEARED TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 103W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 17N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 104W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE 
COAST OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING AND 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS 
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
STATES OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W 9N86W TO A WEAK 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 6N95W...THEN RESUMES FROM 1004 MB LOW NEAR 16N105W 
ALONG 8N114W 8N122W TO 6N128W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 90W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 98W-103W...WITHIN 90 OF 
W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-118W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED AT 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SE TO 19N116W. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO THE S IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 


BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS PROVIDING THE 
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE 1004 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE DESERT SW ACROSS N BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 20N123W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WITHIN 400 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION W OF THE 
1004 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO SHIFT NE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL SHIFT E TODAY THROUGH FRI MORNING 
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.  

$$ 
PAW