000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC THU MAY 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1004 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N106W WITH ELONGATED 
TROUGHING EXTENDING S-SW OF THE LOW. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE 
CONCENTRATED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE 
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE AND E 
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
LOW IS ALREADY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SW MEXICO WITH 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO LAND. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED 20-30 KT WINDS...WITH 
THE HIGHEST IN THE SE QUADRANT. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN A 
COMBINATION OF LOCALIZED WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW 
SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE-E AROUND 10 KT DURING THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N100W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 09N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N121W TO 08N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 92W...WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED AT 30N139W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N110W. THE RESULTING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO THE S 
IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT IS SEEPING INTO THE WATERS N 
OF 27N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W JUST W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE MODERATE TO FRESH NW 
WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING DOWN THE ENTIRE W SIDE OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A SURGE OF STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NW 
WINDS WILL REACH 32N JUST OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA FRIDAY ALONG 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND THE SEAS 
UP TO 12 FT SPILLING S OF 30N BEGINNING FRI NIGHT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT 8-10 FT COVERS 
THE WATERS S OF 03N BETWEEN 81W AND 106W...EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM 
NE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL TOTALLY DECAY TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY THIS TIME FRIDAY EVENING.
 
$$ 
LEWITSKY