000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072119 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED MAY 07 2014

CORRECTED VALID TIME OF SATELLITE IMAGERY

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1004 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N106W WITH ELONGATED 
TROUGHING EXTENDING S OF THE LOW THROUGH 12N106W TO 08N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE 
N QUADRANT AND IN THE S QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A RECENT 1624 UTC 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW IS VERY ELONGATED. 
THE PASS ALSO SAMPLED 20-30 KT WINDS...HIGHEST IN THE SE 
QUADRANT. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN A COMBINATION OF 
LOCALIZED WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME 
LESS FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 08N100W...THEN  
RESUMES FROM 07N109W TO 07N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
07N124W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 84W...WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND 
ALSO WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W 
AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 30N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 21N114W. THE MODERATE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
IS PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT IS SEEPING INTO THE WATERS N 
OF 27N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W JUST W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY TOMORROW EVENING. A SURGE OF STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR 
GALE NW WINDS WILL REACH 32N JUST WEST OF BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT 
ALONG WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT AND LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT 8-10 FT COVERS 
THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N80W TO 01N94W TO 03.4S112W. THIS 
SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS TIME FRIDAY.
 
$$ 
LEWITSKY