000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC WED MAY 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N107W ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM OF THE N 
SEMICIRCLE. OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED PEAK 
WINDS AROUND 25 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE COMBINATION OF 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELL EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS 
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 11 FT. THE LOW 
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME 
LESS FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE 
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. GRIDDED DATA FOR 
THIS SYSTEM ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH 
WINDS FROM THE GFS AND SEAS FROM THE MWW3. THE ECMWF WAS 
CONSIDERED...BUT NOT USED...AS THAT MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE 
UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL AND FORECAST WINDS IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE LOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES 06N79W TO 
10N87W TO 06N99W...THEN RESUMES AT 12N109W TO 05N133W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N133W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
TROUGH E OF 85W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 31N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 21N111W. THE MODERATE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

A NORTHWESTERLY LOW PERIOD SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT IS OCCURRING JUST 
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS.  A SURGE OF STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS 
WILL REACH 32N JUST WEST OF BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT AND LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
WILL ALSO PUSH SOME 8 TO 9 SWELL UP TO ABOUT 05N IN THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO.  THESE SWELL WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 8 FT BY LATE FRIDAY. 
A NEW SOUTHERLY SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE EQUATOR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
$$ 
LANDSEA