000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC WED MAY 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N104W TO 9N111W 
WITH A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N107W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0352 
UTC SHOWED THE CENTER TO BE NE OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THE 
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND 
A MEAN LOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FRI AS THE DISTURBANCE 
APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE 
DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 6N79W 
ALONG 10N86W TO A SECOND WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N91W TO 4N98W 
THEN RESUMES FROM THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 
13N107W ALONG 9N113W 8N124W TO 5N131W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 
5N131W TO BEYOND 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 300 NM SW AND WITHIN 240 NM E-NE OF THE 1008 MB LOW IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W TO 
91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 93W-98W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N138W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SW TO NEAR 22N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE 
HIGH WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TIGHTENING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE HIGH 
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH THU. SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL TO 9 FT WILL 
AFFECT SE PORTIONS E OF 100W THROUGH THU. 
 
$$ 
PAW