000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC WED MAY 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N105.5W TO 
08N111W WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 11N108W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1740 UTC 
SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING W TO 114W. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A MEAN LOW AND MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS 
CONDUCIVE FRI AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS 
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N92W TO 12N100W. THE 
ITCZ IS FROM 07N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SW TO NEAR 20N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE 
HIGH WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TIGHTENING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE HIGH WILL 
ALSO STRENGTHEN NW WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH THU. SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL 
TO 9 FT WILL AFFECT SE PORTIONS E OF 100W. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL