000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC TUE MAY 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N106.5W TO 
08N112W WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 10.5N109W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1740 
UTC SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 114W. THE ELONGATED AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A MEAN LOW AND 
MOVE NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE 
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE 
OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N95W TO 09N95W TO 
16N103W TO 08N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N124W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 99W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SW TO NEAR 19N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
120W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS 
N OF THE ITCZ THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E 
OF THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN NW WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH THU. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL