000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC TUE MAY 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO NEAR 11N107W. THE LOW 
HAS A BROAD AREA OF ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY ORGANIZING DEEP 
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY 
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE 
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM 
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS 
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W TO 
010N87W TO 09N95W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES OFF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO AT 16N101W AND CONTINUES TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N107W 
TO 07N122W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N122W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 
77W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 110W TO INCLUDE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 85 W AND 
120W...AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 110W TO INCLUDE MEXICO. THIS 
RIDGE IS ALSO ABOVE THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. 
 
ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N137W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 22N112W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADEWINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TIGHTENING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BY 
MIDWEEK. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT E OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN AND 
STRENGTHEN WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA BY TUE NIGHT EXPANDING TO N OF 26N E OF 123W BY THU. 
 
$$ 
FORMOSA