000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC TUE MAY 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N78W ALONG 8N84W 5N91W TO 2N100W. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH RESUMES ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N99W THROUGH A 
1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N110W TO 7N121W. THE ITCZ BEGINS 7N121W ALONG 
7N126W 4N133W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF 1009 MB LOW. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 
13N BETWEEN 103W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 136W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXTENDS E/W ALONG 14N AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW. A MID 
LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CONVECTION. THE FORECAST OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE GENERAL 
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS BROAD AREA TO FORM A 
SECOND LOW PRES TO THE EAST AS THE CURRENT 1010 MB LOW AS THAT 
LOW DISSIPATES.  
 
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GUIDANCE WITH 
THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS RELATED TO 
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN RELATION TO THE SURFACE LOW 
AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR. CURRENTLY THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE N BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALONG 25N118W TO A BASE NEAR 
12N132W. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N138W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE   
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TIGHTENING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BY 
MIDWEEK. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT E OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN AND 
STRENGTHEN WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA BY TUE NIGHT EXPANDING S TO N OF 24N WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE COAST. 
 

$$ 
PAW