000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC TUE MAY 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N86W TO WEAKENING 1010 MB  LOW PRES NEAR 
06N90W TO 11N105W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO 08N120W. 
LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATED A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ FROM 08N120W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 
14N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 
98W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THE FIRST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 10N112W. THE SECOND AREA WAS ASSISTED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE 
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS GAP WIND EVENT. THIS 
AREA HAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE GENERAL 
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR 
THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY TO MERGE...WITH A SECOND LOW 
PRES FORMING TO THE EAST AS THE LOW NEAR 10N112W DISSIPATES.  
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GUIDANCE WITH 
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS RELATED TO THE 
POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN RELATION TO THE SURFACE LOW AND 
THE RESULTANT SHEAR. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N138W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE   
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BY 
MIDWEEK. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT E OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN AND 
STRENGTHEN WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE BY TUE NIGHT. 

$$ 
PAW