000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC MON MAY 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 05N90W 
TO 10N102W TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO 08N120W. 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ FROM 08N120W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 360 NM S 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 108W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF TROUGH  BETWEEN 109W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                       

TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THE FIRST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 10N112W. THE SECOND AREA WAS ASSISTED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE 
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM A WANING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS AREA RETAINS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL 
CIRCULATION....THOUGH LATE DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SUGGESTS CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE FORECAST FOR 
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS 
IS FOR THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY TO MERGE...WITH THE 
SURFACE LOW SHIFTING N THEN NE WHILE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 125W WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING 
EASTWARD.   

. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS 
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE  THE 
TREND FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER LOW 
FURTHER TO THE WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER LOW 
TRACKING FURTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL HIGH SEAS FORECAST WILL 
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FOR DEVELOPMENT AND 
POSITION BUT WITH A NOD TO THE ECMWF/UKMET FOR INTENSITY. AN 
AREA OF 20-25 KT SW WINDS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 240 NM 
IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES AREA AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY 
NE. 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N138W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N115W. THE FAIRLY RELAXED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADEWINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADE WINDS N OF 
THE ITCZ BY MIDWEEK. AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN 
AND STRENGTHEN WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE BY TUE NIGHT.

$$ 
COBB