000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SUN MAY 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0600 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE 0312 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 
WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO 
BE AS HIGH AS 15 FT. THESE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END 
BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NE MEXICO 
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N91W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N111W TO 08N120W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N120W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 97W...WITHIN 330 NM 
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 102W...AND BETWEEN 150 NM AND 330 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 109W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM 
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 08N111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND W 
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 08N111W 
LIES WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE 
21Z...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND W QUADRANTS OF 
THE LOW PRES CENTER. THE LOW WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION 
AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR IT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE 
VERTICAL MOTION INDUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT AROUND MID WEEK...CAUSING THE 
SYSTEM TO DEEPEN. 

THE 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N145W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO 32N135W TO 
29N120W TO 21N112W. RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
INHIBITING THE TRADE WINDS...KEEPING THEM ONLY AS STRONG AS A 
FRESH BREEZE. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT JUST 
EAST OF 140W AND STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...EXPANDING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. 

ALTIMETER PASSES FROM CRYOSAT AROUND 0110 UTC AND JASON-2 AROUND 
0310 UTC SHOW THAT NW SWELL TO 9 FEET HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE 
AREA N OF 25N AND W OF 132W. THIS SWELL IS DECAYING. SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT HERE BEFORE SUNSET.

$$ 
SCHAUER