000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC SAT MAY 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE LATEST SURFACE 
OBSERVATION FROM ICAO STATION MMMT...MINATITLAN IN MEXICO... 
WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
IS SHOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. GALE-FORCE GRADIENT WINDS 
ARE REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM NOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LOWER THAN GALE 
FORCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH MORE AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 14N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 06N102W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N110W TO 05N126W. ITCZ FROM 05N126W TO 04N140W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 108W.  
1009 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 09N110W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 
08N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND 
112W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N145W...JUST TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
CENTER TO 30N123W AND 22N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE WESTERN PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP 
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES THROUGH 
MONDAY MORNING. 

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 09N110W. THIS LOW CENTER  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE LATEST GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW THAT THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT 
WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT. 
THE MERGING OF THESE TWO AREAS OF VORTICITY WILL HELP FOR A 
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. 

THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA SHOW THAT NW SWELL OF 8 FEET HAS MADE 
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...FROM 27N NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 130W.
THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

$$ 
MT