000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE LATEST SURFACE 
OBSERVATION FROM ICAO STATION MMMT...MINATITLAN IN MEXICO... 
WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
IS SHOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. GALE-FORCE GRADIENT WINDS 
ARE REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM NOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LOWER THAN GALE 
FORCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH MORE AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 14N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 06N102W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N110W TO 07N118W. ITCZ FROM 07N118W TO 05N130W TO 
04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W...FROM EQUATOR TO 
05N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 113W AND 
118W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 06N BETWEEN 134W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N145W...JUST TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
CENTER TO 26N131W AND 17N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES IN THE WESTERN PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP 
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES 
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 8N110W. THIS LOW CENTER  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
AN OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...THE LATEST GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW THAT THIS AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT 
WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT. 
THE MERGING OF THESE TWO AREAS OF VORTICITY WILL HELP FOR A 
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. 

$$ 
MT