000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE WINDS TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH AFTER SUN AFTERNOON...AND BY 
MON MORNING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BE 
CONFINED TO N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 06N96W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 07.5N111W 1009 MB TO 07N117W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST 
A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 03N133W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 03N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N145W 
WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N116W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. 
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS 
WILL KEEP A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WITH MAINLY MODERATE 
TRADES THROUGH MON MORNING. 

A SURFACE LOW OF 1009 MB IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND CENTERED NEAR 07.5N111W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THIS AREA OF 
ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT. THE MERGING OF THESE TWO AREAS 
OF VORTICITY WILL HELP FOR A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. 

$$ 
AL