000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0645 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS AT 20-25 
KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS OBSERVED BY 
SHIP A8NQ6 NEAR 14.5N95W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE 
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE 
MEXICO...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING 
AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S. 
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY THIS AFTERNOON 
AND END BY LATE SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS 
TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 10N89W TO 
09N93W TO 09N106W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N115W TO 
03N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS  
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W 
AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
08N108W LIES WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THE 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR IT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE VERTICAL 
MOTION INDUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT AROUND MID WEEK...CAUSING THE SYSTEM 
TO DEEPEN. 

THE 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
32N146W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO 32N130W TO 
18N108W. RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE ITCZ IS INHIBITING 
THE TRADE WINDS...KEEPING THEM ONLY AS STRONG A FRESH BREEZE. 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCH A FEW DEGREES 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ITS PRESSURE CHANGES 
LITTLE...KEEPING THE TRADE WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS WITH SEAS 
GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.

$$ 
SCHAUER