000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO START BY SUNSET SAT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
END AROUND SUNRISE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO ON SATURDAY...INCREASING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING GALE CONDITIONS TO 
PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE. CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THIS 
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N90W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES 08N110W WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ 
EXTENDING WEST TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 115W FROM 
10N TO 15N IS SUPPORTING SPORADIC CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW AT 
08N110W. LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR 
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THIS LOW PRES 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH VERY SLOW 
MOVEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FARTHER EAST DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A 
SHARP UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ALONG 09N IS SUPPORTING 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. 

ELSEWHERE WEST OF 120W...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 25N REMAINS 
FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING ONLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND 
FLOW. ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 
6 FT. 

$$ CHRISTENSEN