000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO START BY SUNSET SAT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
END AROUND SUNRISE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO ON SATURDAY...INCREASING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING GALE CONDITIONS TO 
PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE. CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THIS 
EVENING.

  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 10N90W TO 1008 MB 
LOW PRES 7N99W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 7N110W TO 6N123W. ITCZ 6N123W 
TO 6N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W TO 
83W AND FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 128W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS N OF 25N W OF 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 
THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N125W TO 23N128W. OTHERWISE MOSTLY 
ZONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N-25N. A 75-90 KT 
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 19N109W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 100W-112W.

A WEAK SURFACE PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$ 
DGS