000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0645 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY SUNSET SAT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND END AROUND SUNRISE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO ON SATURDAY...INCREASING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW 
FROM LAND...ALLOWING GALE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE. 
IN THE MEAN TIME...EARLIER OBSERVATIONS AT MINATITLAN (MMMT) 
INDICATED ONGOING STRONG FLOW IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.

  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 
09N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N108W TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N120W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS FOUND BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E AND 60 NM W OF A TROUGH 
FROM 14N107W TO 06N106W.

 
...DISCUSSION...                                       

RELATIVELY WEAK 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N152W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIES FROM 32N130W TO 
26N135W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS ANY 
STRONGER THAN A FRESH BREEZE. WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD...TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 14N107W TO 06N106W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 06N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON 
THE NE SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 05N109W AND S OF A 
WESTERLY 65-KT UPPER JET. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE 
VERTICAL MOTION OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN THE REGION. 
THESE GENERAL CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THIS 
REGION. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS GRADUALLY 
ERODING THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG NW 
TO N WINDS NOTED IN THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 
AN ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1738 UTC TO DIMINISH. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE HIGH 
PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

$$ 
SCHAUER